We have entered new political territory in presidential politics. Any time a politician, pundit, or pollster makes a “sure” prediction about next year’s presidential contest, you can give it as much credibility as a story about a Kardashian entering a nunnery.
Take a new story by Reuters, claiming that there are “two simple reasons” a Republican will win the presidency in 2016. The evidence, based on “models, not polls” comes from two assumptions: When a party has held the Oval Office for two straight terms, voters pick the other party; and when a current incumbent’s approval rating is below 50 percent, voters pick the other party.
Sorry to burst Reuters’ bubble, especially when it claims it “created” a “data model” that is based on historical precedent. I’ve got news for Reuters: 2016 isn’t anything like 1976, 1992, 2000, or 2008.